Next Up — March 15, 2026

Oscar Odds 2026

98th Academy Awards  •  Dolby Theatre, Hollywood  •  Hosted by Conan O’Brien  •  24 categories

Best Picture Best Director Best Actor Best Actress Supporting Screenplay
Odds reflect betting market implied probabilities as of March 8, 2026 — updated daily in the final week before the ceremony. For informational purposes only.

Major Categories

Best Picture
One Battle After Another Frontrunner -567 85%
Sinners +800 11%
Hamnet +2500 4%
Marty Supreme • Frankenstein • Sentimental Value • Others <1%
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson Frontrunner
One Battle After Another
-1150 92%
Ryan Coogler
Sinners
+1150 8%
Josh Safdie • Chloé Zhao • Joachim Trier <1%
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet Frontrunner
Marty Supreme
56%
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
37%
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
4%
Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
2%
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
1%
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley Frontrunner
Hamnet
65%
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
15%
Emma Stone
Bugonia
12%
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
5%
Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
3%
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sean Penn Frontrunner
One Battle After Another
3/10 77%
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
4/1 20%
Delroy Lindo • Jacob Elordi • Benicio del Toro <2%
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Madigan Frontrunner
Weapons
48%
Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
25%
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
15%
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
8%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
4%

Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay
Ryan Coogler Frontrunner
Sinners
1/18 95%
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
3%
Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier • Robert Kaplow • Jafar Panahi et al. <1%
Best Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson Frontrunner
One Battle After Another
1/14 93%
Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
Hamnet
4%
Guillermo del Toro • Will Tracy • Clint Bailey & Greg Kwedar <1%

Odds sourced from betting markets including Covers, Sportsbook Review, and Polymarket. Percentages are implied probabilities converted from the consensus line as of March 8, 2026. Fractional odds (e.g. 3/10) sourced from UK bookmakers. American odds shown where available.

Odds for craft and technical categories (Cinematography, Editing, Score, VFX, etc.) not shown — coverage of those categories is thinner across markets.  •  Full nominee list → Oscars 2026